POPULATION FORECASTING

           POPULATION FORECASTING

1.  Arithmetic Increase Method
2.  Geometric Increase Method
3.  Incremental Increase Method

Arithmetic Increase Method:-

Pn = Po + n ˉ

   

                      

P_n = Population after n decades

n = No. Of  Decades

P_o = Population at present

ˉ = Average of population increase

In this method it is assumed that population increase at a constant rate.

Also Read:-https://totalcivilstudy.blogspot.com/2018/06/one-example-analysis-of-rate.html

Problem:- The population of 5 decades from 1930-1970 are given below find out the population after one, two, three decades beyond the last known population.

Year	1930	1940	1950	1960	1970
Population	25000	28000	34000	42000	47000

 

Also Read:-https://totalcivilstudy.blogspot.com/2019/01/18mm-thick-cement-plaster-16-you-may.html

Soln:-

Year	Population	Increase in Population
1930	25000	3000 6000 8000 5000
1940	28000
1950	34000
1960	42000
1970	47000

                        Total Increase Population= 22000

Average increase = 22000/4=5500

 According to Arithmetic Increase Eqn:

                           P_{n =} P_o + n ˉ         

                     P₁₉₈₀=P₁₉₇₀+n ˉ

                            = 47000+1*5500

                            =52500(Ans)